Energy-Related Executive Orders Under Trump
President Trump issued a number of Executive orders on his first day, which we believe will have a positive near-term impact on our midstream and refining coverage. In addition, the President also withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord.
Unleashing American Energy
Trump’s headline directive calls on federal agencies to review all regulations limiting energy production or usage by eliminating delays in permitting and expediting projects vital to the US economy and security. In doing so, the order promotes energy production and exploration on federal lands and waters. On funding, Unleashing American Energy also pauses subsidies issued under the IRA or IIJA until agencies complete a 90-day review to ensure alignment with new policy. The directive then nullifies some of Biden’s energy/environment executive orders, such as the EV mandate, LNG export pause, emissions waivers limiting gasoline-powered cars, or the Green New Deal.
Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements
This mandate withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement and rescinds the US International Climate Finance Plan, as well as any UN Convention on Climate Change commitments. The reallocated funds are to prioritize economic efficiency, consumer choice, and fiscal restraint in all foreign engagements that concern energy policy.
Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions
This order rescinds Biden administration orders that are incompatible with Trump’s stances on areas such as climate change. The mandate repeals previous measures to restrict oil/natural gas leasing, investigate climate-related financial risk, and implement the energy provisions of the IRA. Thereby, the order eases the increased regulation of energy businesses under Biden and pauses financial support for clean energy initiatives.
Declaring a National Energy Emergency
This order allows executive departments/agencies to exercise any lawful emergency authorities available to them to facilitate the generation of domestic energy resources on US land and expedite the completion of all authorized energy infrastructure. It allows the Administrator of the EPA and Secretary of Energy to consider issuing fuel waivers to allow the continuous sale of E15 gasoline to meet any temporary shortfalls in gasoline supply. It also allows exemptions from the Endangered Species Act requirements. This is meant to ensure energy prices are not high and there is adequate energy supply.
Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential (LNG)
This order establishes a policy to use Alaska’s natural resources. It orders agencies to review current restrictions that limit resource development in that area, and it further tasks agencies to expedite projects critical for developing Alaska’s resources (particularly prioritizing the development of Alaska’s LNG industry and Trans-Alaska Pipeline System).
Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf
The order reviews current wind practices and pauses all consideration for new/ renewed wind energy leasing. It applies to wind leasing for electricity generation purposes but not for oil, gas, minerals, and environmental conservation purposes. It doesn’t affect the rights under existing leases, but the Secretary of the Interior is to
review these.
Delivering Emergency Price Relief and Defeating Cost-of-Living Crisis
Due to rising costs for fuel, food, housing, automobiles, etc., the order mandates all executive agencies to deliver emergency price relief. This includes endeavors to decrease housing expenses, expand housing supply, create job opportunities, etc. It also calls for the elimination of any detrimental climate-related policies that increase costs.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Key risks for pipeline partnerships include the following: unexpected prolonged and precipitous decline in commodity prices; interest rate risk; risks associated with leverage; environmental risks; and regulatory risks associated with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s governance over pipeline tariff rates. Key risks for marine transportation partnerships include the following: OPA 90 costs; potential changes to the Jones Act; and environmental risks. Key risks for coal partnerships include: reliance on third party operators; decline in coal prices or production; and environmental risks. Key risks for propane partnerships include the following: weather (particularly warm winters) as with all propane and heating oil distribution companies; prolonged and sharp increases in wholesale prices of propane and heating oil caused by changes in supply or other market conditions; dependence on acquisitions for growth; and interest rate risk (as ALL MLP units, tend to trade inversely with interest rates). Unitholders may be required to file taxes in states where the partnership conducts business and should consult a tax advisor for further assistance. For most Midstream/MLPs, our methodology averages valuations derived from a DDM and EV/ EBITDA multiple.
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UBS Global Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions
12-Month Rating | Definition | Coverage 1 | IB Services 2 |
Buy | FSR is > 6% above the MRA. | 51% | 24% |
Neutral | FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. | 41% | 20% |
Sell | FSR is > 6% below the MRA. | 8% | 22% |
Short-Term Rating | Definition | Coverage 3 | IB Services 4 |
Buy | Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. |
<1% | <1% |
Sell | Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. |
<1% | <1% |
Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 December 2024.
1: Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.
2: Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
3: Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.
4: Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.
KEY DEFINITIONS: Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stock’s price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term, usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Short-Term Ratings reflect the expected near-term (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment case. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.
EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES: UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Consultation (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stock’s volatility and the credit spread of the respective company’s debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.
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UBS Securities LLC: Manav Gupta, Naomi Marfatia, Prokop Martinek, Saumya Jain, Sumantra Banerjee.
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