Above the Fold

Expert: Social Normalcy May Be Coming Sooner Than We Thought

Positive results from yet another vaccine joint venture add momentum to what some believe could bring herd immunity to America by late spring 2021. Promising results from The University of Oxford and AstraZeneca showed up to a 90% efficacy rate in preventing infection. The large 23,000 person trial showed that a half dose given initially, followed by a full dose a month later resulted in the best outcomes for patients (two full doses resulted in an efficacy of 62%), with no major side effects noted. Another favorable aspect of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is the fact that it can be transported using regular refrigeration temperatures of 35 to 48 degrees, and can be stored and stable for at least six months. This will help distribute the vaccine to poorer countries and those with less complex infrastructure. The two other vaccines created by Moderna and Pfizer, which both show about a 95% effective rate, must be stored at much lower temperatures, making them a little less stable for transport. The AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine will also be about $2.50 per dose, compared to $20 for the Pfizer product and $15 to $25 for the Moderna inoculation. 

With three highly effective vaccines nearing distribution, the question now becomes consumers’ willingness to be vaccinated and how quickly each can be produced. With data in hand and the first Americans expected to be vaccinated in mid-December, the chief scientific adviser of the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine development and distribution program believes that we could see life return to normal around May of 2021. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is scheduled to hold a critical meeting on Dec. 10 to grant emergency approval for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which would allow inoculations to begin on Dec. 11 or 12. 

Three Things 

1. Momentum Takes Hold of Bitcoin – A parabolic rally that began in September has pushed Bitcoin prices up nearly 90%. Traders see continued momentum (and volatility) as Wall Street heavyweights Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller announced their interest in the synthetic currency — which is now nearing all-time highs. 
2. California Gives Tesla Workers “Get Out of Jail Free Cards” – Governor Gavin Newsom announced new, limited “stay-at-home” orders last week for non-essential work movement or social gatherings from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. Tesla, who previously fought prior lockdown orders, was given a blessing to allow plant workers, who are now considered essential, to continue production.
3. There’s a Rising Commercial Real Estate Buyer in America – With the pandemic straining some commercial real estate investments, South Korean investors, including pension funds and life insurers, are finding opportunity in warehouses and office buildings with long-term, stable tenants like Amazon.com. In the first three quarters of 2020, Korean investors accounted for nearly 9% of all overseas investments in U.S. commercial real estate, up from just 3.7% during the same period last year.

Did You Know?

Happy Thanksgiving!

We realize that this Thanksgiving may not exactly feel typical, but there’s no reason to lose sight of what this holiday really means, even if you do have to share your turkey and “fixins” virtually. Though the context of this annual feast has evolved since the days at Plymouth, the core significance remains the same: gratitude. And with that, we wanted to express our thanks to all of you who read Basis Points and wish you and your loved ones a happy, healthy and safe holiday.