As the November midterm elections approach, we are frequently asked about how different election outcomes would impact legislation.
The consensus view is that Democrats will take over the House and the Republicans will maintain the Senate. But this is a rare event. In U.S. history, the House has never flipped parties without the Senate also flipping. There is one exception, and that was in the 2010 midterm, because Republicans needed to win 11 Senate seats — a significant task. Today, the Democrats need to win just two Senate seats. A look at the polling suggests the House will be split almost 50-50 and a look at the individual Senate races shows the election would produce a 50-50 Senate. The polls, however, are not static and there remains a large number of undecided voters. How those voters break in the coming weeks will likely determine which political parties control which Congressional chambers.
As such, here are some potential scenarios that we could see playing out if the Democrats take control of Congress, Republicans maintain control, a combination of the two, as well as some state election implications.
Strategas Research Partners