Basis Points is our regular market commentary updates, generally sent on Tuesdays and Thursdays, to provide a quick digest of economic perspective.
U.S. and EU Central Banks signal continued dovish stance as earnings season heats up with results from JPM and WFC Friday. Disney dumps Netflix, yogurt overwhelms consumers and Walmart goes robotic. Meanwhile, automotive autonomy may be here sooner than you think.
Last week’s BLS jobs report surprises to the upside as investors look to first-quarter earnings for the latest rally’s validation. Technicals also show bullish promise for S&P 500, while bond predictions don’t exactly paint a rosy picture for stocks in 2019. Netflix also dumps Apple TV+, and we catch up on AOL stats.
An estate plan that leaves wealth without wisdom can quickly destroy a family legacy
– Every past decline looks like an opportunity, while every future decline looks like a risk.
2018 was certainly a year for the record books. It was the first year since analysts began tracking market segments in 1903 that all asset classes showed a negative return for the year. Energy and commodity prices, gold, domestic bonds and stocks, and bitcoin all traded lower for the year. There was nowhere to hide globally either. Each of the 50 largest economies in the world saw their equity markets post negative returns for the year, and both developed market and emerging market stocks and bonds traded lower in 2018.
Strong long-term equity market returns do not come free. There is an emotional cost that must be paid.
The bankruptcy of Sears Holding Corp. reminds us that pruning the free market tree of the losers is as important as celebrating the winners.
New stock market highs are a good thing. But remember to stick with your plan.
The U.S. economy is far less volatile than at any time in history
The benefits of tariffs are small but visible, while the detriments and costs are large but invisible.
Will this economic recovery need to land and refuel soon, or could this long strange trip continue?
The roots of the Turkey financial crisis, and where they can go from here
Above the Fold
What is driving Apple’s stellar profit growth?
Why is U.S. corporate capex up so sharply at both large and small firms?
Did You Know?
Reader question: Why do investors pay a lower multiple for stocks in a high inflation environment?
Trade Tensions Ratchet Up — Why Now?
Midterm Election Year Summer Market Swoons — Par for the Course?
Oil Prices Pop on Surprising OPEC Decision
Above the Fold
The equity market traded sharply lower this morning, after the Trump administration’s latest threat to China increased fears of an impending trade war between the world’s largest economies. Trump asked the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs, at a rate of 10 percent. If China “refuses to change its practices” and insists on continuing with the new tariffs it recently declared, then the additional levies would be imposed on China.