Above the Fold

Santa Claus and the Retail Sector 

The last few months of the year are critical for the American retail sector, the economy and the markets. The period is viewed by many as a hyper-barometer of economic health where we uncover details about confidence and discover just how much Santa (aka the average consumer) is willing to spend. Ironically, it’s a myth that the lion’s share of U.S. retail sales come in the fourth quarter. While it’s true that overall fourth quarter sales have exceeded 25% of total annual results in 24 of the past 25 years, they haven’t risen above 27.88%. That said, you can bet your bottom dollar that investors will key into retail sales growth, which is still expected to remain robust. Aside from autos, fuel and restaurant spending, The National Retail Federation said it expects 2019 holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8% and 4.2% over 2018 to a total of between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion. 

With the consumer still expected to ring the register, another holiday phenomenon could continue to manifest itself. The Santa Claus rally is the tendency for stocks to rise in the final weeks of December into the first few days of January. And even though the event is debated, and not assured (as we saw in 2018), The Trader’s Almanac noted that the period has delivered an average 1.3% gain since 1950 and occurred 75% of the time since 1969. But don’t confuse Santa’s rally with The January Effect, which presumably occurs when stocks are sold in December only to be repurchased in January for tax purposes. 

Three Things

1. Cybertruck Breaks More Than Windows – Elon Musk’s first pickup truck design was met with a polarizing reception that left many investors concerned that its broken, unbreakable windows were just the beginning of bigger issues. But the futuristic Cybertruck quickly proved the naysayers wrong as reservations for the angular vehicle topped a record 200,000 within days of its botched reveal. 
2. Could Boomers Blow Up the Housing Market? – According to the Wall Street Journal, baby boomers are set to dump 21 million homes on the U.S. housing markets over the next two decades, putting downward pressure on prices. Experts believe that the effects could be felt most in retirement communities in sunny states like Florida and Arizona. 
3. Cancer Vaccine a Reality? – Scientists are close to commercializing customized cancer vaccines that utilize the body’s own defenses to fight different types of mutated cancer cells. The vaccines work best for certain types of cancer in its early stages while the immune system is still strong. Companies like Dendreon Corporation, NeoStem Oncology, ImmunoGen, Inovio Pharmaceuticals and Novartis are the biggest players in the field. 

Did You Know?

Need to Know Thanksgiving Facts

As we gather around the table this week to break bread with friends and family, you can take comfort knowing a few odd facts about this holiday that is celebrated by nine different countries, in their own unique ways, of course. 

Eighty-eight percent of Americans will eat turkey during Thanksgiving week, consuming 46 million turkeys, with an average weight of 15 pounds, in the process (roughly 22 million turkeys are eaten on Christmas). Young turkeys are called poults, the obvious genesis of the term poultry, and turkey also has more protein than chicken or beef.

Black Friday isn’t just the busiest shopping day of the year, but also the most hectic for plumbers. So be smart with scraping your plates and use the trash, not the sink, for leftovers.