Basis Points – November 29, 2022

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Above the Fold      

Black Friday Dramatically Different From the Past 

Even though the pandemic is over, and Americans are once again moving about freely, the long lines that used to wrap around brick-and-mortar retailers ahead of the big sales day were largely nonexistent. According to Fox News reports, the parking lots of many big box retailers, such as Walmart, Target and Best Buy, were relatively empty compared with previous Black Fridays. Some of this can be attributed to longer sale durations that many companies adopted during the pandemic, reducing that “door-buster urgency.” Another factor is the continued migration to online shopping. According to the National Retail Federation, more than 160 million people shopped for deals online between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In-store visits were up nearly 3% compared to 2021, and retailers also reported a 19.7% rise in Thanksgiving Day traffic as an increased number of stores opened on the holiday.  

  

Now, it’s important to note that 67% of Black Friday shoppers will still do their business in person, but more and more are going online to get their holiday gifts and sale items. According to estimates, online shoppers dropped a record $9.12 billion, up from $8.92 billion in 2021. Those data do not correct for inflation, so assuming an average price hike of 9%, shoppers would have needed to spend more than $9.73 billion. That said, it’s certainly a sign of resilience. In total, holiday sales during November and December are expected to increase between 6% and 8% over 2021 and fall between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. One trend is certain, consumers continue to gravitate toward digital, with nearly half of online sales being made via a smartphone.   

Three Things                           

Mercedes Rolling Out Performance “Subscription” 

Though Europe is disallowing the German carmaker’s new money grab, Mercedes is releasing a “pay for performance” subscription option to get more speed from your electric car. Traditionally, automakers offer upgrades up front if you want to buy a higher trim package or faster powerplant, but Mercedes sees a unique opportunity to try and disrupt the status quo by allowing its electric car buyers to “subscribe” to greater acceleration. The new $1,200 per year program, set to release only in the U.S. initially, will be available on its EQ and EQS models. Once your fee is paid, Mercedes says a software change increases maximum motor output by 20% to 24%, translating to about a 1-second decrease in 0-to-60 acceleration performance. At a minimum, it’s certainly a sexier offering compared to BMW’s $15 per month heated seat subscription released earlier this year in several countries.  

Chinese Protest Draconian COVID-19 Restrictions 

In an unusual show of government defiance, protests have sprung up across the communist nation in major cities to show citizens’ deep disapproval of President Xi Jinping’s zero-tolerance positives that have severely impacted the country’s social and economic health. Over the weekend, demonstrations began in Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan and elsewhere. The protests were allegedly triggered after a deadly fire in Urumqi, which took 10 lives. Residents there have endured lockdowns of more than 100 days and believe the tragic outcome of the fire was due to restrictions and subsequent delays in getting emergency personnel to the incident. In response, Beijing announced they will no longer use gates to block access to apartment compounds where infections are discovered. 

Banks Could Step Up to Compensate for Zelle Fraud 

According to the Wall Street Journal, a consortium of America’s largest financial institutions is working on a plan to compensate victims of fraud stemming from the use of the popular Zelle payment network. Banks, including Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America, are looking to instill confidence in the Zelle network, which logged 1.8 billion transactions totaling more than $490 billion in 2021 alone. The network has been the target of scammers who swindle consumers into sending payments for goods and services using a myriad of complex techniques. While customers may have protection from transactions that were not authorized, there are currently no protections in place for money that was purposefully sent. Details of the reimbursement plan have yet to be released.  

In the Know                           

Mauna Loa Erupts for the First Time in Nearly 40 Years 

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa, the world’s largest of roughly 1,350 potentially active volcanoes in the world, began erupting Sunday. It’s the first event since a substantial eruption in 1984. The 13,677-foot-high volcano is centered in the Pacific Ring of Fire and covers an area 75 miles long and 64 miles wide. The summit caldera, which is where explosive lava from this recent event is currently contained, has an area of nearly 6 miles at a depth of 600 feet. Mauna Loa, or “Long Mountain,” has erupted three dozen times since its first documented volcanic discharge in 1843. Sunday’s explosive event is not expected to threaten nearby communities, but the U.S. Geological Survey and Weather Service are warning of potentially hazardous ashfall across parts of the big island.  

 

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