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Friend or Foe? Trade Shifts Reflect Geopolitical Risks

In 2023, the United States bought more goods from Mexico than China for the first time since 2002. In 2017, the Trump administration placed steep tariffs on many Chinese products. These levies, which were kept by the Biden administration, make the cost of goods from China less competitive against U.S. products and those imported from nations with free trade agreements. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine and attacks in the Red Sea have all disrupted supply chains and provided further impetus to reconfigure trade strategies.

U.S. imports of goods from top trading partners (in billions), 1999-2023

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024; McKinsey Global Institute, 2024

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