Inflation: Consumer Price Index

Inflation was the headline for this past week. The June Consumer Price Index declined 0.1%. This is the first time since May 2020 that the CPI registered less than 0% for a month. Prices rose 3.0% over the last 12 months, a smaller increase than the 3.3% advance for the 12 months ended in May. Consumer prices less food and energy rose 0.1% in June after rising 0.2% the preceding month. Prices less food and energy rose 3.3% over the last 12 months, which was the smallest 12-month increase since April 2021.

Inflation: Producer Price Index

Prices at the producer level advanced 0.2% in June after being unchanged in the previous month. Producer prices rose 2.6% for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since March 2023. The June rise in producer prices could be traced to a 0.6% increase in prices for services. In contrast, prices for goods decreased 0.5%. Prices less foods, energy and trade services were unchanged in June, following a 0.2% advance in May. For the 12 months ended in June, prices less foods, energy and trade services moved up 3.1%.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The retail sales report for June is available this week. Sales of goods and services to consumers ticked up 0.1% in May and 2.3% over the past 12 months. Another important report to consider this week is the Federal Reserve’s index of industrial production for June. Industrial production and manufacturing rose 0.9% in May. Overall, industrial production is up 0.4% from May 2023, while manufacturing is up 0.1%.